It’s not yet end-of-Quarter but I think it is good to reflect on what I predicted for our economy. I mentioned four (4) signs to watch out, so let’s discuss this one by one.
1) Remittance. Our wall against external shocks is starting to fall down. Year-on-year, remittance grew by only 0.8% in December. This sounds off the alarm that remittance may hit the slowdown soon. In fact, Citigroup is seeing a 3% growth of remittance for this year, compared to double digit growth we are used to see year after year.
2) External Trade. We have seen in the news that merchandise exports dropped by 40.4 percent to $2.672 billion from $4.482 billion in December 2007. This is a complete reversal from the growth in December 2007 at 21%. Bulk of our exports come from imports of parts of electronics. Sad news is that November data shows that imports dropped by 32%, and with the closure of electronics manufacturing/companies in the country I don’t think we can still reverse the situation of external trade. Unless we become net exporter of our very own products like Banana, Woodcrafts/Furniture, Pineapple, etc. The government can try to develop export of this industries to increase its share of total exports.
3) Inflation. Good thing is that inflation now manageable this year albeit still higher than 2007 levels. This is due to continued rollbacks in fuel prices, stable price of electiricity and water rates. However, with the implemented rate hike of water yesterday and planed increase of electricity charges on April, we may see prices to go up again. Also note that rice crisis may still haunt us as no concrete solution has been made but to import rice.
4) Employment. We are hearing bad news on employment everyday. retrenchment here and there. The pump priming on infrastructure can only do so much. How about those electronics employees of closed companies, can we put them in infrastructure? I don’t think so. The job mismatch will worsen and we may see a situation of too much unemployed and too few “abled” workers, capabale of doint the task/job.
There you have it. Still bleak forecast for me in the next 10 months. I am still hoping we can get out of this situation as soon as possible. Any suggestions on how we can turn this around will be appreciated.