Archive for February, 2009

Amid the bad news there is good news

February 20, 2009

philhealth

Philhealth has announced that it is increasing its benefits for members by 35 percent starting May 1 which would translate to roughly P7 billion increase in benefit payments to member-beneficiaries.This is part of its contribution to the government’s economic stimulus package.

Ralph Recto of NEDA is encouraging SSS and GSIS to follow Philhealth and hike benefits for their members.

See the rest of the story here.

Fearless Forecast 2009 – Update

February 20, 2009

It’s not yet end-of-Quarter but I think it is good to reflect on what I predicted for our economy. I mentioned four (4) signs to watch out, so let’s discuss this one by one.

1) Remittance. Our wall against external shocks is starting to fall down. Year-on-year, remittance grew by only 0.8% in December. This sounds off the alarm that remittance may hit the slowdown soon. In fact, Citigroup is seeing a 3% growth of remittance for this year, compared to double digit growth we are used to see year after year.

2) External Trade. We have seen in the news that merchandise exports dropped by 40.4 percent to $2.672 billion from $4.482 billion in December 2007. This is a complete reversal from the growth in December 2007 at 21%. Bulk of our exports come from imports of parts of electronics. Sad news is that November data shows that imports dropped by 32%, and with the closure of electronics manufacturing/companies in the country I don’t think we can still reverse the situation of external trade. Unless we become net exporter of our very own products like Banana, Woodcrafts/Furniture, Pineapple, etc. The government can try to develop export of this industries to increase its share of total exports.

3) Inflation. Good thing is that inflation now manageable this year albeit still higher than 2007 levels. This is due to continued rollbacks in fuel prices, stable price of electiricity and water rates. However, with the implemented rate hike of water yesterday and planed increase of electricity charges on April, we may see prices to go up again. Also note that rice crisis may still haunt us as no concrete solution has been made but to import rice.

4) Employment. We are hearing bad news on employment everyday. retrenchment here and there. The pump priming on infrastructure can only do so much. How about those electronics employees of closed companies, can we put them in infrastructure? I don’t think so. The job mismatch will worsen and we may see a situation of too much unemployed and too few “abled” workers, capabale of doint the task/job.

There you have it. Still bleak forecast for me in the next 10 months. I am still hoping we can get out of this situation as soon as possible. Any suggestions on how we can turn this around will be appreciated.

Ang Dynasty

February 19, 2009

rsa

This is what most likely Ramon S. Ang would like to have in few years time through San Miguel Corporation. After taking the the presidency of the food, beverage and giant, the company has reached the greater heights, penetrating the international maret and acquiring strategic companies along the way. SMC has bought six companies in four nearby countries,boosting international sales to 13 percent of total revenues. SMC’s major acquisitions were Australian boutique brewer J. Boag and Son, Thai Amarit Brewery Ltd., food processor TTC (Vietnam) Co., Australia’s top juicemaker Berri Ltd., Japanese brewer Kirin Brewery Co. Ltd., Australia’s largest publicly traded dairy National Foods Ltd, and the world’s largest pineapple canner Singapore-based Del Monte Pacific Ltd. However, in November 2007, SMC sold Boag’s to Lion Nathan and National Foods to Kirin. I personally think this is an attempt to limit foreign exposure and shift to deomestic investments. In 2008, SMC acquired GSIS’ shares in Meralco, signed a memorandum of understanding with Qatar Telecom QSC (Qtel) to build wireless broadband and mobile communications projects in the Philippines, and has taken control of the country’s biggest oil refiner, Petron Corporation. Based on some news articles, Ramon Ang revealed that the company will soon provide broadband and high-speed Internet service using Meralco Broadband over Power Lines (BPL). With BPL, users can plug their computer into any electrical outlet in their home and instantly have access to high-speed Internet. Ang is also committed to provide more affordable gas and petroleum products to Filipinos through Petron. It is clear that as an investment strategy San Miguel is into the diversifying game – acquiring upto 50.1% stake only of a company to take control, and the excess money can be invested somewhere else. Ang is like buying stocks of blue chip companies like MERALCO and PETRON. However, with his personality Ang is a hands-on guy. He wanted participation in all of his business venture. But the market is jittery about the direction of San Miguel. That’s is why investors are more excited for the bond offering of Globe Telecom than of San Miguel. For some investors, there is too much risk for San Miguel investing in companies not related to brewery, packaging, and food. Only time will tell if Ang will have the last laugh establishing his name among the top companies in the Philippines or investors are right not betting their money on Ang’s envisioned dynasty.

Globe bond offer now P5 billion

February 17, 2009

Did you missed out the bond offering last week? Here’s your chance to get hold of Globe’s 3-year and 5-year bond. Globe Telecom and the underwriters for its P3-billion corporate bond issuance have agreed to double the amount of oversubscription to P2 billion due to increased investor interest.

If you want to diversify your portfolio and have at least P50,000 to spare, I suggest you consider this one.

Globe Telecom’s P3-billion bond issue

February 13, 2009

globe

Telephone lines of BPI branches has been sending busy tone yesterday morning, February 12, as it marks the start of Globe’s P3-billion bond issue. See related story here. It is selling like hotcakes! Investors are all in a hurry to avail themselves of the offering due to Globe’s good track record. I think it will be oversubscribed by Monday.

The P3-billion corporate bonds will be issued in three-year and five-year notes, with an over subscription option worth up to P1 billion. The three-year bonds, maturing in February 2012, will carry an interest rate of 7.5 percent while the five-year bonds, due on Feb 2014, will have an eight percent return, to be paid quarterly.

With the current low interest rate environment this latest offering is a good investment alternative for a minimum of P50k. However, I did not availed it since I also have a corporate bond of a Government Corporation offering 5% per annum rate, tax free, maturing also on 2012. And this is almost risk free since it is backed by the government.

I hope more investment opportunities like this at a higher coupon rate will be made available in the future.